2025 marked a year of immense volatility for the global steel market. However, the landscape of Vietnam’s steel industry demonstrated enduring resilience and an impressive breakthrough capacity. Below are the most significant market highlights of the past year, alongside strategic forecasts for 2026. Vietnam’s steel industry continues to evolve in response to global market dynamics.
1.The 2025 Milestones: Record-Breaking Triumphs of the Vietnam’s Steel Sector Contrary to many initial pessimistic projections, the domestic steel industry concluded 2025 with record-breaking figures unseen in the past five years.
- Production and Consumption Reach Historic Highs: Crude steel output in 2025 reached nearly 24.7 million tons, marking a 12% year-over-year growth and establishing the highest level in the last five years. Cumulatively for the year, finished steel production surpassed 32.26 million tons, a 10% increase.
- Domestic Consumption as the Backbone: Total consumption reached 31.62 million tons, an increase of nearly 9%, indicating that domestic enterprises successfully offloaded nearly all manufactured steel. Notably, in the first 11 months of 2025 alone, domestic consumption surged by an impressive 24.5%.
- The growth within Vietnam’s steel industry is expected to continue, driven by both domestic and international demand.
- Corporate Earnings Soar: Leading industry players effectively capitalized on market opportunities. Prominently, Vietnam Steel Corporation (VNSTEEL) reported an estimated system-wide profit exceeding VND 1,400 billion. This represents the highest profit margin in the last five years and more than doubles the figure recorded in 2024.
- Investments in sustainable practices are becoming a priority for Vietnam’s steel industry.
- Safeguarding the Export Supply Chain: In 2025, Vietnamese steel products achieved positive outcomes in anti-dumping and trade review investigations across the EU, Canada, Australia, and India. Anti-dumping duties levied on steel exported from Vietnam were determined at 0% or maintained at significantly lower margins compared to other nations.
2.Market Comparison: Vietnam Bucks the Global Downtrend Vietnam’s steel market in 2025 recorded clear signs of recovery, starkly contrasting with the somber and gloomy tone of the global market. This divergence is distinctly reflected across the following dimensions:
- Regarding General Context and Consumption Demand: While the international market grappled with stagnation, fierce competition, and deeply depressed steel prices, global steel demand experienced virtually zero growth. Specifically in China, the protracted crisis in the real estate sector caused domestic steel consumption demand to weaken noticeably. Conversely, the Vietnamese market sustained robust growth momentum, fueled by the recovery of the real estate sector, accelerated disbursement of public investment, and effective measures to protect domestic manufacturing.
- Regarding Production Output: The contrast is also glaringly evident in statistical figures. Total crude steel production across 70 countries globally in 2025 reached only 1.8 billion tons, a 2% decline compared to 2024; notably, China’s output fell by 4.4%, hitting its lowest point since 2018 as it dropped below the 1 billion-ton mark (reaching 960.81 million tons). In stark contrast to that downward trajectory, Vietnam’s steel sector broke through with a 12% increase in crude steel production compared to 2024.
- Vietnam’s steel industry is focusing on innovation to maintain competitive advantage in the global market.
- Regarding Export Activities: Facing severe oversupply pressures due to declining domestic consumption, China continuously ramped up metal exports, creating record-breaking export waves. On the contrary, Vietnam’s steel export activities recorded a significant contraction, with total export volume dropping by 20% (to over 10 million tons) and export value decreasing by 27% year-over-year. The primary drivers behind the stagnation in Vietnam’s steel exports were weak global market demand, compounded by the continuous erection of trade defense barriers by numerous countries.
3.Industry Outlook: Projected Trends for the First Half of 2026 Entering 2026, Vietnam’s construction steel industry stands on the precipice of a new growth cycle, albeit accompanied by international challenges.
- Sustaining Consumption Growth Momentum: Vietnam’s steel industry is forecast to achieve robust growth of 8% to 10% in 2026. Notably, the upward trend in construction steel consumption is projected to maintain its strong momentum through the end of the first quarter of 2026.
- The outlook for Vietnam’s steel industry remains strong, with expectations for continued growth in consumption.
- Macroeconomic Drivers: The principal growth catalysts in the upcoming period will continue to stem from public investment policies (airports, expressways), the sustained recovery of civil real estate, and the operational commencement of major projects.
- The stability in Vietnam’s steel industry is supported by favorable government policies and investments.
- Controlling Import Pressures: Effective January 1, 2026, China’s implementation of a new steel export licensing mechanism is anticipated to introduce administrative barriers, thereby significantly reducing the volume of Chinese steel imported into Vietnam.
- Future challenges will include adapting to global market changes while promoting local growth within Vietnam’s steel industry.
- Tightening Trade Defenses: To proactively safeguard the domestic market moving forward, Vietnam is currently conducting an anti-circumvention investigation regarding wide-flange hot-rolled coil and reviewing existing measures applied to H-beam steel.
- The emphasis on quality and efficiency will guide Vietnam’s steel industry in the coming years.
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